Why we poll
Measuring public opinion is a political necessity
If Syria’s new order is to avoid the fatal insulation of the past, it must learn to listen. The launch of Syria Poll marks a first attempt to anchor power in public sentiment and to make accountability a habit that can become a constitutional guarantee.
Syria is not a democracy. Yet if the country is to move towards even a quasi-democratic future it should start by behaving as though public opinion matters. That conviction underlies Syria Poll, the first recurring, face-to-face, in-the-street survey of Syrian opinion.
The inaugural phase, conducted by Syria in Transition in Damascus, Rural Damascus and Homs in early February 2026, involved the interview of 900 respondents across age, gender and income groups. In the coming months, we shall gradually expand our geographical scope to allow results that are fully nationally valid.
Syria Poll does not segment respondents by sect or ethnicity. After years in which identity categories were politically weaponised, we judged it neither useful nor desirable to reinforce them. Instead, we focus on structural factors such as class and political orientation. In other words, we are less interested in default identity labels than in people’s lived circumstances and the ideas they hold.
The results are somewhat reassuring for the government. 63 per cent of respondents – nearly two-thirds – believe Syria is heading in the right direction. A smaller majority, 56 per cent, say they trust the government to achieve transitional justice. Approval of the government’s performance reaches around 90 per cent among those who identify as high-income, but falls to 65 per cent among low-income respondents. That is broad support, but not a plebiscitary mandate.
Such distinctions are precisely why polling matters. For much of its modern history, Syria’s political culture was highly elitist and did not involve public consultation. In that environment rulers inevitably came to rely on curated information and loyal intermediaries who told them what they wanted to hear. As policy drifted from the lived experience of the many, discontent accumulated until it exploded.
In the coming months Syria’s parliament is expected to convene. However limited its authority might be, legislators and ministers will have to make decisions on economic reform, public services, foreign policy and reconciliation. Legislating without systematic knowledge of public attitudes would be to operate in partial darkness.
Opinion data should not, however, become the private property of think tanks and donor workshops. Survey results often circulate only within narrow policy cliques where they are cited selectively and debated only behind closed doors. That blunts their democratic potential. If public opinion is to shape governance, it must itself be public. Media outlets should analyse and interrogate findings; politicians should respond to them; citizens should see their views reflected in the national conversation. Publishing the findings in a manner easily digestible by the layperson normalises the idea that government is principally accountable to the society it serves, rather than just to allies and regional patrons.
Polling has obvious limits. When asked about transitional justice, some may respond cautiously, or may not even understand what is meant by the term. Polls are snapshots, and require repetition, methodological refinement and complementary qualitative work. Over time, as familiarity grows and fear recedes, the accuracy will increase.
Scepticism about polling, though healthy, should not turn into disdain for public judgement. This is especially a risk among Islamists who often regard the views of al-‘ama (‘the masses’) as inherently flawed because they lack the necessary learning to form a considered opinion. Islamic tradition, however, recognises a form of collective wisdom: “My community will not agree upon error” is a Prophetic saying that affirms the principle that dispersed judgement often corrects the blind spots of narrow elites. Societies often develop a collective sixth sense for what is and is not tolerable.
That insight matters now. Fourteen months after the Assad regime’s collapse, satisfaction with basic public services is mixed: 49 per cent say they are satisfied; 35 per cent are neutral. Economic hardship is palpable, and support for the new authorities is clearly stratified by income. Discontent is increasingly evident, including within wide segments of the government’s own Sunni base.
For President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s administration, the lesson should be straightforward. The Assad regime’s downfall owed much to its insulation from inconvenient realities; and legitimate authority rests on maintaining a two-way conversation with the people. Polling is a critical element in that conversation.
View results of the first wave of Syria Poll.
