Issue 28 – September 2025
Welcome to Syria in Transition (SiT), a monthly delve into policy-relevant developments concerning Syria. Crafted by practitioners with a decade-long experience in the field, SiT offers informed perspectives tailored for diplomats and decision makers. SiT goes straight to the point and shuns unnecessary verbiage – just as we would prefer as avid readers ourselves.
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If you can make it there…
Sharaa seeks legitimacy in New York
Syrian interim president Ahmad al-Sharaa’s forthcoming address to the UN General Assembly is being cast by loyalists as the “birth certificate of the New Syria.” For a man whose authority is contested at home and whose interim mandate remains constitutionally shaky, his New York appearance, on 24 September, will be steeped in symbolism. He will try to present Syria as entering a “new chapter,” but his promise of renewal has lost much of the weight it carried earlier in the year. Western diplomats increasingly voice such concerns in private, though they have so far refrained from acting on them.
Also billed is a US-brokered Syrian–Israeli “security agreement,” expected to be inked at the sidelines. Sharaa will appear not only as a respectable head of state but as the architect of a regime willing to strike difficult deals. What is reportedly on the table would give Israel de facto security primacy in the south. It would consolidate a US–Israeli-backed administration in Suwayda, establish a direct hotline between Damascus and Tel Aviv, and include provisions pointing towards “land swaps” and eventual normalisation over the occupied Golan. | continue reading
Au revoir, Geneva
All change at the OSE as Pedersen looks to resign
The Syrian government was informed in mid-August of the UN Secretary-General’s decision fully to relocate the Office of the Special Envoy (OSE) from Geneva to Damascus. Sources familiar with the process say that the Secretary-General neither consulted the Security Council nor the Sharaa government beforehand. The move looks less like a thought-through strategy than a broad cost-cutting measure under the UN80 agenda — and a step to please member states who believe that proximity equals impact. | continue reading
Rubber-stamp revival
Syria’s new parliament might be more of the same
The head of the Higher Election Committee, Mohammed Taha al-Ahmad, was frank when he told a public gathering in Daraa in late-June that he wanted “a parliament that is homogeneous with the authorities.” Although he later modified this phrase under pressure from those present, the statement clearly expressed what is desired of Syria’s next parliament. Officially, the new People’s Assembly will fill an institutional vacuum and will lend legitimacy and credibility to Syria’s transition. The details of the electoral process, however, do not chime with the second of these objectives. | continue reading
The (sub)National Guard
The Druze of Syria now have an army
As the Assad regime’s grip on northern Syria collapsed at the end of 2024, Druze armed groups in Suwayda decided to end the uneasy status quo that had prevailed for years: a light regime security footprint alongside continued state administration. Factions that once carried the Syrian regime’s flag as a gesture of nominal loyalty to Damascus switched to the green-white-black opposition banner and signalled readiness to join a new, unified Syria. Ashraf Jamul, spokesman for a coalition of Suwayda factions known as the Joint Operations Room, captured the early mood when he told Syria in Transition in December: “Once Suwayda, Daraa and the southern region stood hand-in-hand, Damascus fell. We were the first factions to arrive in Damascus before any other faction arrived.” | continue reading
Taking charge
A conversation with Raed al-Saleh
In the aftermath of Assad’s ouster, Syria’s transitional government has sought to distinguish itself by drawing figures from outside HTS. Civil society leaders and NGO veterans have taken on ministerial portfolios, bringing with them a record of grassroots engagement and international advocacy. Their arrival signals an effort to rebuild trust between state and society, but also raises difficult questions about the relationship between NGOs and the government, the role of international donors, and the pursuit of justice for crimes committed during the war.
To explore these issues, Syria in Transition spoke with Raed al-Saleh, formerly head of the Syrian Civil Defence, now serving as Minister for Disaster and Emergency Management. | continue reading