Covered in the current issue

Double or quits
Syria’s leader flirts with Moscow as he decides whether to fight or talk

Nine months in, Ahmad al-Sharaa’s leadership of Syria faces an acute crisis. His promise to unify the country under his authority was initially hailed by Sunni Arab constituencies and regional patrons, particularly Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Circumstances, however, have intervened. Sharaa’s inability to foster genuine inclusivity, compounded by bouts of sectarian violence, has driven the Druze to cut loose with Damascus. In doing so, they have followed the path blazed by the Kurds, who over the past decade have carved out self-rule in northeastern Syria.

As the momentum for decentralisation grows, Turkey – already opposed to Kurdish autonomy – has become increasingly alarmed. Sources in Ankara have confirmed to Syria in Transition that, concerned by Damascus’ mishandling of the Suwayda situation and fearing further forced concessions, Ankara has pressured Sharaa into withdrawing from another round of French-hosted, US-mediated peace talks, this time with the Kurds. | continue reading

Lions of Syria
Damascus’ mobilisation of tribes and monarchical ambition

Sheikh Humeidi Daham al-Jarba, the late chief of the Shammar tribe in Syria, often entertained guests at his madafa with colourful tales from his travels. One anecdote dated back to the mid-2000s when he visited Yemen and found himself in conversation with the then-President, Ali Abdullah Saleh, at a gathering of the country’s political and social elite. The topic at hand was  rather delicate: Saleh was contemplating disarming Yemen’s tribes, many of which had tanks and rocket launchers in their arsenals, and who frequently kidnapped Westerners to strong-arm the government.

Sheikh Humeidi, however, was having none of it. “Mr. President,” he began, “tribes are like lions. The tribes of Yemen are like jungle lions – wild, free, and fierce, thriving in their natural environment. The tribes of Syria and Iraq, on the other hand, are like zoo lions. People come to admire them but they are caged and lacking the vigour they once had. As for the tribes of the Gulf, they’re like circus lions: trained to perform tricks to please the audience.” Humeidi finished: “So, Mr. President, which kind of lion would you prefer to have on your side?” | continue reading

Fault lines abroad
How Syria’s transition is re-shaping its German diaspora

Continued violence in Syria has exposed political and social fault lines and has been echoed in Germany. In Berlin and Düsseldorf groups of an estimated 300-400 supporters of the Syrian transitional government under President Ahmad al-Sharaa clashed in July with members of the Kurdish and Druze communities and with other protestors. Accounts of who started the confrontations vary, but in Berlin a small group chanted inflammatory slogans against Druze and Alawites while praising Sunni tribes, members of which had committed serious human rights violations in Suwayda.

Better to understand the underlying debates, Syria in Transition spoke with a range of Syrians living in Germany: activists, members of community organisations, and politically unaffiliated individuals. The portrait that emerges is not meant to be statistically representative. That would be difficult to achieve even through large surveys. Expectations influence what people are willing to say, as several interviewees emphasised. In the Syrian context, it reflects a deep yearning — especially among Sunni Arabs — to protect the dignity they feel was partly restored with Assad’s fall. | continue reading

New Age Salafism
Syria’s embrace of obedience over jihad

The rise of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to power in Syria has triggered a subtle yet significant ideological shift within the group and its supporters. While the gradual "Salafisation" of society continues through control of mosques, universities, and military academies, the government is moving away from traditional jihadi-Salafism and begun to align more closely with Madkhali Salafism. This school of thought, supported by Saudi Arabia and accepted by the West for its ability to counter jihadi-Salafism, has increasingly found support within HTS circles. This shift is being presented to hardliners within the group as a necessary response to public fatigue with prolonged war and the negative legacies of Al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS). The aim is to offer a more moderate and domestically focused Salafi approach. | continue reading